Reactive adaptation to avoid an unacceptable situation of escalating risk.

Sally Brown provides a nice overview of the various complexities of sea-level rise (What drives uncertainties in adapting to sea-level rise?). Its a worthwhile read just to get an introduction to what has to be accounted for in trying to project sea-level rise - much more than simply projecting melting ice and thermal expansion of water.

A fair bit of the article discusses uncertainty and how it may be dealt with in regards to sea-level rise. The whole issue of uncertainty has been manipulated mightily in the course of where climate science meets policy. Brown expresses frustration with how climate science loves to talk about uncertainty.

Late in the article Brown suggests a concept regarding sea-level rise: "reactive adaptation to avoid an unacceptable situation of escalating risk". The concept could just as well be applied to geologic hazards and risk and to some extent is being used already.

The quoted phrase could be modified for some geologic hazards and risks. In some cases, the hazard may not have been previously understood. For example, the potential for a large Cascadia earthquake was not known until the 1980s. Prior to the mid 1980s the potential for a large subduction quake was suspected based on what was know about plate tectonics, but there was a lack of evidence supporting big quakes. Since the 1980s, our understanding of the hazard and the risk posed has greatly improved.

The same could be said for the Seattle Fault. Also for the hazards posed by the various volcanoes.

Since there is now a better understanding of these hazards there is a better understanding of the risks. The risk posed by the Cascadia Fault has not changed, but our understanding of that risk has. The risk escalation is simply that we now understand the risk far better than we once did. Indeed there has been some "reactive adaptation" to avoid or reduce some of the unacceptable situations from what was previously an unidentified risk.

There will always be a some uncertainties regarding geologic risk. There is still much to be worked out regarding the Cascadia Fault and Seattle Fault as well as a number of other fault zones in Washington State. The same is true with our large strato volcanoes. But despite that uncertainty, reactive adaptation has moved forward.

I have touched on this theme previously (geologic-consent-and-civilization). How we react and adapt to geologic hazards as well as alteration of the atmosphere is measure of our civilization's capability of dealing with unacceptable risk.

 

HB 4776

Susan DelBene has introduced House Bill 4776 (house-bill/4776/text). Ms. DelBene's U.S. Congressional district includes the Oso area. The purpose of the introduced bill is begin the process of a national approach to landslides. The funding section is very modest given than national scale of the problem - $8 million for landslide hazard mapping and assessment (but also suggests prioritization which could mean a shift in existing funding) and $10.4 million for grants. The grant part would may assist the Washington State Geology Division's efforts to develop a state-wide landslide program.

All good, but the later question will be What will be done as landslide hazard areas are identified?At a national level, What, if anything, should the federal government do or require of states regarding landslide loss reduction. At the State level, What if anything should the State require of local governments?

Failure to take action with regard to identified landslides has life and fiscal consequences. Those consequences impact all of us. A statement in the bill that I was glad to see was "compile, maintain, and evaluate data on The nationwide impact of landslides on health and safety, the economy, and the environment".   

Notes on Recent Wenatchee Heights Landslide

Dave Petley noted the landslide south of Wenatchee chelan-county-landslide and some good photographs are provided by komonews.com photos.

The landslide is within an area mapped with multiple landslides. A massive slide complex that extends from the Columbia River all the way to the mountain crest thousands of feet above is located just to the east.

Part of the Wenatchee 1:100,000 Quadrangle (Tabor and others)

The recent slide is located a bit west of the W in Wenatchee Hill on the map

Note the slide movement arrows on the map including one just east of Qs on the map where the recent slide has moved.

Waitt describes the landslide complex within in the Wenatchee map pamphlet. The general idea is that massive blocks of earth have moved down the slope in an old landslide complex. More recent secondary slides are superimposed on this slide. The bright green (Tw) on the map is designated the Wenatchee Formation. There is some uncertainty in this area of the map regarding that designation in part due to the lithologies being disrupted and displaced by the large scale slides.

The Wenatchee Formation is an alluvial sedimentary formation that is approximately 35 million years old. Hence it predates the Columbia River Basalt Group. The formation is preserved so to speak within a large graben like drop down structural block. The formation contains clay units and is not particularly hard; hence, slides within the clay units may be the problem.

This landslide area is very different than many other landslide areas in Washington State. For one thing this area was not glaciated nor did the huge ice age floods reach this slide location. That means the Wenatchee Formation underlying the area has had time to become deeply weathered and clay formations may have become weathered and softened at considerable depth.

There is a topographic indication that the recent slide is within a larger old slide. The topography also suggests that the slide is very old as streams have incised into the old slide and the slide slopes do not appear sharp edges - that is they have been weathered. The best DEM I have available shows some lumpy ground indicative of a slide along with a shape of a slide, but also shows incised drainages and lack of sharp slide scarp edges.

Two old slide areas are in central area of image

The creek valley on the west side of the old slide has down cut and created a steep slope fronting the old slide and may have set up the right geometry. Some long term deep weathering may have added to the instability. And then this past winter has been very wet. Another factor may be the development of orchards on the old slide area contributing water. Roads redirecting water may also have been a factor. These factors may have taken awhile to weaken the clay below. The images and descriptions suggest that the slide area is smaller than the whole old slide feature and may be a relatively shallow secondary feature with little relation to the old slide.

Lots of "mays" in the paragraph above. The slide is complex and figuring it out and what to do will take some time. Chelan County has hired a geotech firm and issued warnings and closed the road. The slide was reported to still be moving.

Pangborn Bar Server Farm

A relatively new feature on the landscape of eastern Washington are server farms. Not a new type of agriculture, but very large computer facilities for data storage. (http://sabeydatacenters.com/intergate-columbia/).

 

This facility was built about eight years ago in East Wenatchee in Douglas County. The site is on the Pangborn Bar, a large gravel bar formed during the early ice age floods along the Columbia River. A large complex of ancient landslides with the Columbia River Basalt Group rises up on the slope above the massive gravel bar.

The site is near perfect server farm site with cheap stable hydro electric power from nearby sources (Douglas County Public Utility District) and inexpensive land area. The $100 million facility is a big boost to the local property tax.

Not far from this site a cache of spear points was uncovered (Moises Aguirre and Mark Mickles discover prehistoric Clovis point artifacts in an East Wenatchee apple orchard on May 27, 1987).
The juxtaposition of two leading edge technologies 10,000 plus years apart on the Pangborn Bar.

Luke Kelly

A little tribal pride today so a bit of Luke Kelly for the day. The first is Black Velvet Band with the Dubliners - a nice raucous ballad. The second is The Town I Loved So Well. A song written by Phil Coulter about Derry and The Troubles.

Climate Models and Foreign Policy

The Syrian crisis receives a great deal of international news coverage in the U.S. For good reason. Pundits and presidential candidates (some not very presidential) pitch solutions or criticisms.

While much is made of social forces in the conflict, there have been natural forces at play as well. Climate change has been a significant contributor to the disruption of the already fragile social order (a-note-on-syria-exponential-case-study).


Cook and others (2016) evaluated the current drought and conclude its the worst drought in the region over the past 900 years. Kelley and others (2015) correlate the severity of the drought with anthropogenic forcing.

A good case for taking account of climate models for foreign policy.


 

Too Short of Note on the Big Tidal Surge of March 10

A bit thin on posts of late - work and travel.

The storm event tide surge appears to have been a rather major event. Reports trickling in from folks describing some major shore alterations. An opportunity for some before and after images. I have one report from a beach that I have visited several times that had an area of elevated well established vegetation with drift wood logs. All but one log is gone. A reminder to always consider the worst case scenarios in assessing hazards.

I am looking forward to taking a return visit to a few familiar shore reaches. Should be interesting to see what my coastal expert associates observe as well.