Winter Red and Blue States

This winter has been a red and blue America.

 

 

The above is a 10-day projection of temperatures for February made on February 12.

The projection held pretty true with the far west being red (warm) and the east and central being blue (cold).

The warmth in the west has been even more impressive than the cold in the east in that many cities in the west with long climate records broke warmest winter records (warmest-winter-on-record-2014-2015), including Seattle while few cities in the east beat all time record winter cold.

On a personal note: it has been an easy field winter for me. Rarely wet and never cold and some days were nap in the sun inspiring.

Summit bald nap site

 

Seiche and Tsunami: Geology Hazard Regulations

I have been doing some volunteer work on the Whatcom County update of the County's Critical Areas regulations. Critical areas are mandated by the Washington State Growth Management Act to be regulated. Critical areas include wetlands, flood areas, wildlife habitat, aquifer recharge areas and geologic hazard areas. I am on the technical committee due to the later part - those pesky geology troubles.

One geologic risk that we recently addressed were tsunami and seiche hazard areas. Wikipedia has a good description of seiche http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche. The current Whatcom County code lumps seiche hazards in with tsunami hazards. I took the view that they should be pulled apart since we have tsunami hazard models for at least part of the marine shore areas of Whatcom County (see map here) and can build specific tsunami hazard regulations based on those model run results. The areas outside the tsunami hazard modeling still are likely at some risk - we simply do not have modeling done in those areas, but it is probable that there is a risk of tsunami in Birch Bay, Drayton Harbor and Point Roberts and for low lying areas in those areas it was suggested that using a 10-foot elevation design would be warranted.     

For the seiche hazard the following new separate category was proposed:   

Seiche and Landslide Generated Wave Hazard Areas.  Seiche hazard areas and landslide generated wave hazard areas include lake and marine shoreline areas susceptible to flooding, inundation, debris impact, and/or mass wasting as the result of a seiche or landslide generated waves. No specific areas of seiche or landslide generated wave hazard areas have been identified in Whatcom County.

Based on my limited understanding of how seiche events can be generated, the risk is very low at the marine and lake shores of Whatcom County. Seiche events from earthquakes are bit more difficult to ascertain and are limited to a bit of speculation. Could one of the lakes in Whatcom County start sloshing around in perfect timing with seismic waves arriving from some earthquake? Lake Union in Seattle has a bit of history of this type of action (http://www.academia.edu/10893569/A_Seiche_Hazard_Study_for_Lake_Union_Seattle_Washington). Apparently the way the Lake Union is shaped makes it susceptible to developing seiche waves that can be damaging. 

Landslides can generate localized large waves - in some cases incredibly large waves (see 1958_Lituya_Bay_megatsunami). For this hazard, one needs to think through the question Just where might this happen? and Are there any known potential areas? Alas I am not aware of any, but that does not mean it could not happen. Perhaps a steep mountain slope above Ross Lake or Baker Lake. That risk is mitigated by the minimum development along those lake shores. In areas I am more familiar, I think the odds of a big wave being generated are very low. That said, I am aware of an estimated 7- to 8-foot wave generated by a landslide in 1997 on Hood Canal. That landslide was very large and fast and was in a bay that reduced the amount of dissipation over distance.

So what we came up with at least for now regarding seiche and landslide generated waves:  

Standards for Seiche and landslide generated wave hazards will only apply if the hazard area is mapped by the United States Geologic Service or the Department of Natural Resources Geology Division or other credible source approved by Whatcom County. If a mapped hazard is present, the standards of WCC 16.16.320 and 16.16.350 shall apply. For residential development within a mapped seiche and landslide generated wave hazard areas, the proposed development should be designed to withstand the mapped hazard. If the risk of the event is less than 0.1% on a yearly basis, development standards may not be required, but notice on property title will be required.

The regulations are only at the earliest stage and might get tweaked a bit more based on input from others. The next step will to go through the Citizens Advisory Committee, then the Planning Commission and finally the County Council. Plenty of time to make changes dependent upon the whims and policy lenses.

Phytoplankton in Commencement Bay

I routinely look up historic photographs for work on the Washington State Department of Ecology shoreline website. The image below came up on the page when I opened it.

 

The site is the Port of Tacoma at Commencement Bay and captures an impressive phytoplankton bloom in July 2006.

Thea Foss Waterway at Tacoma

The last image below suggests a source - the sediment laden Puyallup River carrying sediment from Mount Rainier provides a nutrient source for the phytoplankton.

 

Remembering "Live long and prosper"

Leonard Nimoy was more than Spock. He was a talented actor, director and photographer. However, his development of the character Spock figured large in his life's work and is why so many wonky/science minded folks have written some outstanding articles about Nimoy the past two days: 
Matthew Yglesias, Dylan Matthews, and Lockwood to name a few.

I am not sure I know how much his portrayal of Spock inspired me, but I do know that it was for the better. While Nimoy was not Spock, I appreciated that what Nimoy did with Spock - he was a powerful lasting character that dealt with the logic of morality and came across as passionate without emotion. A great role model for a science officer and for humankind.

Notes on Coal Dust and Bakken Oil

Cliff Mass put up a post of a study he and a student completed regarding wind and potential coal dust at the proposed Cherry Point coal terminal strong-winds-coal-dust. Dr. Mass points out a variety of issues with this proposed project that I am sure is a delight to coal terminal proponents.

There is a picture of flying coal dust from a wind event that hit the coal terminal just to the north in Canada. Lest anyone suggest coal dust does not get blown off of coal piles, here is the Boardman, Oregon coal power plant:

Coal power plant in Oregon

While coal trains passing through Washington State got lots of early attention, the more recent large increase of oil trains all over the country has raised concerns regarding safety. With several refineries in northwest Washington, Washington State has seen a large increase in oil train traffic.

Oil train in Skagit County

The Bakken oil has proven to be a desirable oil for northwest refineries in Washington, and these refineries have shipping facilities that allow for transfer of the oil to ships as well. The Bakken oil contains a lot of volatile components relative to other oils. Part of the problem with the Bakken area is the lack of infrastructure. That lack of infrastructure includes impacts to communities in western North Dakota, but also means there is a large lag of facilities for handling the oil. Pipeline capacity is minimal and local field processing that takes place at more mature oil fields is not present. There is a lack a pipelines so that secondary natural gas is flared wasting-gas-for-short-term-gain and energy-notes-drill-and-burn-wasting-gas. Another impact of the rapid development of this field is that volatile butane and propane are not removed from the oil prior to shipping. More mature fields will separate these components out as they are easily removed and are valuable. A side benefit that is starting to become apparent is safety. Without the volatiles removed, the oil is much more likely to ignite and burn.

The scale of change in the Bakken has been remarkable. I noted that change when I was in western North Dakota a few years ago oil-boom-in-western-north-dakota

Red circles mark post 2005 wells. Prior to that time there were only two oil wells in this small section of the Bakken

Two pre-2000 well sites

Well sites have expanded to include service facilities to other well sites and the farm across road has added a camp area for workers

Non Washington Post: Blackhawk Landslide

Heading home bound I recognized this landscape that is familiar to many geologists:

Blackhawk Landslide, Lucerne Valley, CA (Photo - Lisa McShane)

Shreve (1959, http://thesis.library.caltech.edu/691/1/Shreve_rl_1959.pdf and 1968, http://specialpapers.gsapubs.org/content/108/1.short) suggested the slide mechanics that caused the slide of rocks to travel so far was that it was conveyed on a layer of trapped and compressed air. The slide took place 17,000 years ago and Shreve noted that there were other older, similar slides of similar nature that took place in the same area.

Non Washington Post: Unconformity in the Mecca Hills

I took a trip to visit friends and they joined me on a little geology adventure to the Mecca Hills. The Mecca Hills are a low range of hills on the southern end of the San Andreas Fault zone. The southwest side of the hills has the main trace of the fault and a second fault is located along the northeast side of the hills. The landscape along and between these fault strands is spectacularly contorted. Sylvester and Smith (1987) describe the unique structures that evolved along the faults. The canyons cutting through the hills are a structural delight and a stopping place for many new geologists to map strike and dips and folds and get a three dimensional sense of rock units.  

 

One feature that is tucked up in Painted Canyon is that basement rocks have been uplifted and the unconformity contact is extremely well exposed.   

 

The older basement rocks themselves tell a very complicated story that is variously interpreted and requires a broader context to even begin to appreciate. The short story is that these rocks were thrust under the North American margin, were penetrated by magma, and later unroofed. See Jacobson and others (2007) for a more detailed introduction and an appreciation of working out very complex tectonics. The exposures of these rocks along the canyon walls of upper Painted Canyon provide an opportunity to see a deep crustal section. 

Getting to these features is a fun adventure and has been greatly improved since I once frequented these canyons (we lived near here during another era).

The Mecca Hills are accessed via Painted Canyon - county park and along Box Canyon, a paved road that connects from the Highway 111 and Interstate 10. The upper Painted Canyon and most of the hills are BLM managed Wilderness. A volunteer group maintains the ladders that get one past the various cliffs and drop offs in the canyons.