Reverse Micro Climate in the Olympics

I got to be out in the weather the past few days. A bit chilly and the vegetation was brittle, but sunny! Typically flexible branches that I grabbed were brittle due to the freeze and the ground was crunchy underfoot.

 

On Monday I observed a reverse of a local mirco climate. There were clear skies everywhere in  western Washington with the exception of the north slope of the Olympic Range. The northeast wind was causing uplift and cloud formation on the north side of the range. Perhaps not a great picture but it is a localized weather/climate event I always enjoy seeing - reverse of the rain shadow that is more typical of this area.

 

 

View of the clouds forming out of clear skies as the north wind lifts over the Olympic Range looking west from Discovery Bay

More Notes on Tsunami Policy

A bit more of a follow up on my previous two posts: tsunami-policy-newport-Oregon and geologic-consent-and-civilization.

 

Chris Rowan contemplates the 10 years ago Sumatra Quake and tsunami (highlyallochthonous/sumatra-10-contemplating-the-power-of-tsunami)  and put up this USGS image of giant quakes.

 

It is a good reminder of the past and how much we have learned about giant subduction earthquakes and tsunamis since. It is also illustrative as to why there was a lag in subduction zone earthquake policy and planning in the Pacific Northwest. Outside of a few locations, these risks have been greatly under appreciated or in many cases completely unknown. And even where there was an appreciation, the mechanics were a complete mystery.

Giant coastal quakes and tsunamis were well known to afflict Chile, Japan and Indonesia. But the cause was not known and there was essentially no correlation between those far off places and the Washington State coast.

The Alaska quake of 1964 was important in that it took place shortly after the new concept of plate tectonics had become part of our understanding of how geology worked. As Rowan points out George Plafker's post 1964 Alaska Quake research radically altered our understanding of great quakes, subduction zone seismic events, and tsunamis. The great quake in Chile shortly before the Alaska event also impacted those interpretations.

What this meant for Washington State was that we began to realize that the Pacific Northwest coast was fronted with a tectonic alignment that matched other places around the world that had a history of giant earthquakes and tsunamis.

But the table above hints at what might be the cause of complacency and a lag in understanding and planning; there are big gaps between these large earthquake events. We went for 40 years without a mega thrust 9 earthquake anywhere in the world. Hence, it was hard to appreciate the destructive forces. In addition, the Pacific Northwest had no history of these events (Excepting the oral histories of First Nations Peoples). There was a debate of sorts for some time that giant mega thrusts may not be a risk here as we had no history of these sort of events.  

Brian Atwater went to the outer Washington State coast looking for the features observed in Chile and Alaska and found evidence of mega thrust faulting and over time he and many others have found clear evidence that giant quakes and tsunamis are part of the Pacific Northwest coastal landscape (see HERE for one site of that evidence). Atwater and others work shows that we have mega thrust quakes like Chile, Japan and Sumatra (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1707/.)

From a policy and planning perspective, we have some catching up to do with this relatively new understanding. The USGS and State Geology divisions in Oregon and Washington  have been working on educating the public and providing hazard maps. University researchers have made many advances in our understanding.

Emergency Planners have recognized the risk in most communities, and that recognition is evident with efforts to minimize the deaths and deal with the after event challenges. A lot of those efforts began before the big quakes in Sumatra and Japan. But in many communities emergency planners will tell you a lot more will need to be done with the populations already living in harms way. Oregon State governor has put $100 million into seismic safety in the next budget cycle. Plans are in the works for building escape centers on schools in danger zones in Washington State.

Then there is the development planning part of this equation. The fact that Oregon State University would be planning and advocating for a major structure within a known significant tsunami hazard zone does raise questions as to local, state and federal policies regarding funding development that we know will be destroyed catastrophically. While state and federal dollars are transferred to in-danger communities to mitigate the risks for areas of communities in harms way, more thought should go into where development investments are expended.

As atquake notes, "At the very least, learning from Sumatra (and Tohoku) is simple: don’t build high occupancy buildings in a tsunami zone, particularly when they’re on fill and have limited evacuation options". This is a policy position Washington State and Oregon State need to adopt.

For the thoughtful discussion of this policy issue as shout out to
Chris at http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/,
Lockwood at http://outsidetheinterzone.blogspot.com/,
Chris at atquake
and Oregon Public Radio.






 

Tsunami Policy: Newport Oregon and Oregon State University - What will they do?

Oregon Live noted that that the head the Oregon State Department of Geology and Mineral Industries sent a letter to Oregon State University about tsunami hazards in Newport, Oregon (oregonlive.com/state geologist_warns).

The letter is consistent with Oregon State Law 455.447 (oregonlaws.org/ors/455.447) which states "Developers of new essential facilities, hazardous facilities and major structures described in subsection (1)(a)(E), (b) and (c) of this section and new special occupancy (my emphasis) structures described in subsection (1)(e)(A), (D) and (F) of this section that are located in an identified tsunami inundation zone shall consult with the State Department of Geology and Mineral Industries for assistance in determining the impact of possible tsunamis on the proposed development and for assistance in preparing methods to mitigate risk at the site of a potential tsunami. Consultation shall take place prior to submittal of design plans to the building official for final approval."

Oregon State University is planning building a major marine studies facility within a tsunami hazard area. While it is likely not possible to build all necessary facilities associated with marine activities outside tsunami hazard areas, the concerned building is for up to 500 people in a known tsunami hazard area and includes classrooms, labs and offices. The 500 number is the threshold for special occupancy structures per the Oregon State Law.  The facility is within a hazard posed even by a distance source tsunami and a local tsunami generated by the subduction zone along the Oregon coast (and Washington and northern California). The estimated wave height from a local subduction event is 43 feet. With between 10 to 15 minutes to get to higher ground, the race will be close for some given the one half mile distance that will need to be covered.

This image is modified slightly from the original. I had missed the hill small hill that was closer to the science center site - Lockwood (see comments) clarified the escape route.

 

 It will be interesting to follow how this consultation will proceed. Newport has been an enthusiastic community for marine sciences and was awarded the NOAA facility 5 years ago much to the dismay of Washington State after years of NOAA being in Seattle and the ever hopeful Port of Bellingham that took a crack at attracting NOAA. I would note that despite the NOAA contribution to tsunami hazard mapping, the 2-story NOAA office building will also require a rapid one mile evacuation.

It might be worth taking a look at the view of a 43-foot tsunami wave encountering an essential public service building:

The tsunami surges toward the roof of the three-story disaster management building of the Minami-Sanriku town office, in a photo captured by Nobuo Kato, at 3:34 p.m. on March 11. (Photo by the town of Minami-Sanriku)

Read Nobua Kato's story HERE
 

Geologic Consent and Civilization: Rethinking Durant's Quote

"Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice." - Will Durant in What is Civilization?, Ladies Home Journal, January 1946

I have had the opportunity to give a few talks the past few months and have been closing with this quote from the historian Will Durant.

Historically Durant's quote certainly is applicable, and the quote is a nice nod to the importance of geology in shaping civilization. Certainly there have been civilizations that have been shaped and in some cases ended due to geology. The shaping of civilization by geology has been both subtle and at times dramatic. 

That said, I think geologists and civilization should focus on the "change without notice" part of the quote. While our modern civilization may not be able to precisely predict civilization changing geologic events, I would argue geology does give us notice. How we, as a modern civilization, respond to geologic notice is a measure of our success as a civilization. We have moved beyond, or we should have, being caught unaware of geologic processes. 

A measure of the success of a civilization is to respond and plan for what geology change will take place. A hard thing to do at any government level be it local or global. 

Nohokomeen Glacier

Last summer I had a nice view of the north side of Jack Mountain in the North Cascades.

Jack Mountain viewed from the south slope of Desolation Peak

Jack Mountain viewed from Ross Lake

Jack Mountain's north slope is covered by the Nohokomeen Glacier. There are small glaciers to the east of Jack Mountain, but this is the last of the larger glaciers that extend down to below 6,000 feet. The combination of the height of Jack Mountain (9,066 feet), its location downwind of the gap in the mountains created by the Skagit River and the north aspect of the slope have allowed the glacier to form and remain. Otherwise, this area of the North Cascades is not nearly as glaciated as the peaks further to the west. The range becomes progressively drier to the east and hence the number and size of glaciers this far east in the range is significantly less than areas to the west, and the elevations of glaciers becomes limited to higher peaks and ridges only. 

Blue line marks the current extent of the glacier 

The glacier terminus has retreated approximately 500 feet in elevation from its position when the topographic map was published

The available Google earth images suggest that the retreat since 1998 has been minimal.

Blue line marks the extent of the ice terminus in 1998 and is imposed on the 2013 image. 

   

The Nohokomeen Glacier is not among the the glaciers that have been routinely monitored and measured by the National Park.

Dirt and Views from Mid December Field Work

A bit short of content and posts due to work and travel and field time. The last two days were classic western Washington mid winter field days - a bit wet, a bit windy and the days are really short. Work was a mix of figuring out dirt and with cloudy views.

Southern tip end of the Bolton Peninsula with

Quilcene Bay on the left and Dabob Bay on the right

Oxidized outwash and drift

Where did this pebble come from? Non Olympic source

Another cut slope - compact glacial advance outwash

Test pit digging to confirm or disprove a theory

Drift plain west of Port Townsend

Looking down a 300-foot bluff and recent slope failure along Strait of Juan de Fuca

Wind riffling the water on the Strait

Whidbey Island, San Juans and Mount Erie 

SR 530 (Hazel/Oso) Landslide Commission Report

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee set up a landslide commission to review the Hazel/Oso Landslide. The commission report came out on December 15: SR530 Landslide Commission Final Report.pdf

 

One of the recommendations is to further fund landslide hazard mapping, "The SR 530 Landslide highlights the need to incorporate landslide hazard, risk, and vulnerability assessments into land-use planning, and to expand and refine geologic and geohazard mapping throughout the State. The lack of current, high-quality data seriously hampers efforts under the Growth Management Act".

 

The Washington State Department of Natural Resources has already developed a robust budget request for funding mapping efforts that will be submitted to the legislators this winter. It is a tough budget year. Where landslide risk and costs associated with it fall will remain to be seen.