Vox News (coronavirus-social-distancing-economy-deaths) notes the consequence ending school closures and banning public events too soon. The article is a take on a 2007 JAMA paper that analyzed data from the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic (Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by US cities during the 1918-1919 influenza). Informative regarding methods to tamp down pandemics that were used 100 years ago and still apply today. And a cautionary story of ending interventions too soon. And perhaps suggests that the CDC guidance as well as state health decisions should lean towards closures to 3 or 4 months or more depending on how this pandemic proceeds.
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Excellent post, and the charts tell the story so perfectly. Nice to come across information that adds to understanding and reasonable discussion.
ReplyDeleteJust an observation: graphics show death rate spikes for 1918 Influenza Pandemic during winter months when influenza is naturally very virulent. If we are going to compare these two different viruses and periods of time, then we need to consider that we are entering the summer months when COVID-19 may naturally decline as influenza does, and so perhaps we cannot make a good comparison between the two. Just an observation.
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