Wednesday, November 22, 2017

The Big One: The Hypocenter Makes a Big Difference

Wirth and others (2017) presented various Cascadia earthquake scenario modeling results at the October GSA meeting in Seattle. I scribbled some notes during the presentation. Just where and how deep or shallow the rupture on the fault takes place makes a big difference on the level of shaking that will take place at various locations. By using the model combined with observations of deformation along the coast, this work is refining what various locations might expect from the Big One. Two scenarios presented were for a hypocenter off the central Oregon coast and another with the hypocenter off the northwest Washington coast. The shaking in Seattle would be stronger for the Oregon hypocenter due to how the seismic waves will propagate.

A press release associated with GSA talk provides video of the shake simulations:

http://www.washington.edu/news/2017/10/23/50-simulations-of-the-really-big-one-show-how-a-9-0-cascadia-earthquake-could-play-out/

No comments: